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Global Cement Trade & Shipping - Future Outlook to 2015

The world cement trade and shipping sector is a complex combination of a wide variety of regular movements and sporadic short-term opportunistic shipments. A high volume of trade represents movements between companies under the umbrella of the same multinational cement group, whilst independent cement traders are still a major factor determining price levels and patterns of trade.
Construction booms and downturns can alter the regional cement trade profile dramatically – as witnessed in recent years in many of the world’s leading markets. Similarly, the rush to build new production capacity to meet future demand can make significant volumes of cement and/or clinker available for export, with the location of the plant and inland logistics determining the economic feasibility of overseas shipments.

A further layer of complexity is imposed by the variability of shipping costs – bulk carrier freight rates are determined by factors outside the cement sector, but they can radically alter the cost competitiveness of supplies from one country in a variety of world markets. The volatility of shipping costs – as witnessed over the past 4 years – therefore provides an extra layer of uncertainty for the future prospects of trade patterns and volumes.

Global Cement Trade & Shipping - Future Outlook to 2015 examines in detail the recent development of cement trade patterns and volumes, and provides an insight into the likely future outlook over the period to 2015. This is based not only on the cement production/consumption outlook for individual markets throughout the world, and therefore the implications for import requirements and export availability, but also on the likely future development of the specialist cement carrier fleet and the general bulk carrier sector. With extensive development ahead for the sizes of bulk carrier of most relevance to the cement sector, the outlook for cement shipping via this mode is highly uncertain, especially given the extent of market uncertainty over the future path for shipping freight rates.

For the specialist cement carrier sector, Global Cement Trade & Shipping - Future Outlook to 2015 includes a highly detailed set of analyses of the current fleet, and an examination of the likely forward development, based on the age profile and trends in new vessel ordering.

Global Cement Trade & Shipping - Future Outlook to 2015 provides invaluable independent analysis on the development of cement shipping and trade throughout the world in the period to 2015. It represents the most up-todate and comprehensive examination of the trade and shipping of cement ever published, and is essential reading for all parties with an interest in this sector.

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Global cement demand to grow 4.7% annually through 2012. World demand for cement is forecast to grow 4.7 percent per year to 3.5 billion metric tons in 2012. Gains will be driven  by strong increases in cement consumption in the developing countries of the world, fueled by rising income levels and a focus on infrastructure development. Additionally, a rebound in cement demand in industrialized markets such as  the US, Japan and Germany, will further boost advances. However, gains will slow considerably from the 2002-2007 period, which was characterized by double-digit increases in demand in  China, which accounted for nearly half of global cement demand in 2007. The rate of growth in China will moderate considerably, reflecting a significant slowdown in construction expenditures. Product demand in India, the second largest national market for  cement, will climb at the fastest rate of any major market. Although small, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Vietnam and the UAE are all expected to record gains in excess of seven percent per year.  In the developed areas of the US, Japan and Western Europe, cement sales increases will lag the global average, although improvement over the 2002- 2007 period is expected. In the US, for  example, the market is expected to benefit from a recovery in residential building activity, as well as strong government spending on nonbuilding construction through 2012. In Western Europe, a rebound in construction activity will benefit cement markets in countries  such as Germany and Portugal. Similarly, a pickup a construction spending in Japan following an extended period of decline will help bolster overall developed world market growth.

Blended cement to be fastest growing product

Demand for straight portland cement, which currently accounts for more than three-quarters of all cement sales worldwide, will be spurred by increases in global construction spending and further advances in manufacturing  technology. However, sales of blended cements will climb at a faster pace through 2012, driven by their relatively  low cost and favorable environmental profile. Cement firms are increasing the use of cementious materials such as fly  ash and blast furnace slag in their products, which reduces carbon dioxide emissions from the production of portland cement clinker.

Ready-mix concrete to offer best market opportunities

Ready-mix concrete is expected to be the fastest growing market through 2012, increasing its position as the largest outlet for cement. Ready-mix concrete companies account for a comparatively small but rising share of total cement demand in a number of fast-growing developing countries, particularly China and India, where large-scale construction projects will require significant amounts of readymix concrete. Consumer demand for cement will also expand at an aboveaverage rate, stimulated by overall market increases in developing areas, where consumer sales can account for half or more of all cement demand.

Study coverage

It presents historical demand data (1997, 2002 and 2007) plus forecasts for 2012 and 2017  by cement type, market, world region and for 47 countries. The study also considers market environment factors, assesses the industry structure, evaluates company market share data and profiles leading industry competitors worldwide, such as Anhui Conch, CEMEX, Heidelberg  Cement, Holcim, Italcementi, Lafarge, Taiheiyo Cement, and Votorantim.

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The Cement industry has continued its growth trajectory over the past seven years. Domestic cement demand growth has surpassed the economic growth rate of the country for the past couple of years. Over the past five years (FY03-07), cement demand has grown at a CAGR of 8.37% higher than the CAGR of supply at 4.84%. Demand for cement in the country is expected to continue its buoyant ride on the back of robust economic growth and infrastructure development in the country.

The key drivers for cement demand are real estate sector, infrastructure projects and industrial expansion projects. Among these, real estate sector is the key driver and accounted for almost 55% of cement demand in FY 07.
During the period FY 03 – 07, capacity additions in the country (30.6 mn tonnes) were at a slower rate compared to demand growth leading to higher average capacity utilization rates from 81.3% in FY 03 to 93.8% in FY 07. This exerted pressure on average prices which have increased from Rs. 156 per bag in FY 03 to Rs. 216 per bag in FY 07. In December 2007, prices stood at Rs. 245 - Rs. 250 per bag.
Low capacity addition coupled with higher utilization rate also led to increase in proportion of blended cements in product mix. Blended cement accounted for 68% of product mix in FY 07 as compared to 49% in FY 03.
Cement is a bulky commodity and cannot be easily transported over long distances making it a regional market place, with the nation being divided into five regions. Each region is characterised by its own demand-supply dynamics. The Southern region dominated the cement consumption at 44.5 mn tonnes in FY 07, accounting for about 30% of total domestic cement consumption. During FY 03-07, Southern region has witnessed highest CAGR of cement demand at 10.4% followed by Northern and Eastern regions at 8.9% and 9%, respectively.
Over the past five years, cost of cement production has grown at a CAGR of 8.4%. The producers have been able to pass on the hike in cost to consumers on the back of increased demand. Average realizations have increased from Rs. 1,880 per tonne in FY 03 to Rs. 3,133 per tonne in FY 07, at a CAGR of 13.6%, which has resulted in higher profit margins of the industry.
To reduce the cost of production, the industry is increasing its focus on captive power generation. Proportion of cement production through captive power route has increased over the years. Also, cement movement by
rail has increased over the years.

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World Cement to 2015: Analysis of Production, Consumption & Trade for Individual Countries: The world cement industry has undergone extensive changes in recent years, with Varying economic growth and construction sector expansion funding very different Patterns of development for individual countries. Trade volumes and patterns have continued to be largely determined by regional supply/demand imbalances, with the ever-increasing involvement of the Multinationals in capacity ownership throughout the world, serving to further complicate the cement and clinker trade profile.

The next decade is set to witness further extensive change in cement Supply/demand patterns, as different regions/countries enjoy very different development profiles. This Report examines the current and historical development of cement supply/demand country-by-country throughout the world, and analyses the potential levels of cement supply & demand in those countries throughout the period to 2015.

This Report represents the latest in a series of OSC in-depth Reports on the International cement industry published since the mid-1980s. The detail and range of forecasts in the new Reports are even greater than those in the previous Publications, and represents the most up to date and comprehensive set of forecasts available on the International cement sector.

The Report includes extensive analysis and forecast for individual countries/regions on :-

Cement consumption

Cement production

Cement & clinker imports

Cement & clinker exports

This Report provides invaluable independent analyses on the development of Cement activity throughout the world in the period to 2015 – a period set to witness further large-scale changes. It represents the most up to date and comprehensive examination of cement industry prospect, and is essential reading for all parties wit and interest in this sector.

Table of Content

Section 1: Introduction & Executive Summary
Includes an overview of the Report’s aims, as well as a summary of the methodology underlying the analysis. This Section also includes a summary of the most significant points and conclusions drawn from the main body of the Report. They are presented in the order of the corresponding Sections for ease of reference.

Section 2: Overview: World Cement 1970-2003

This section provides detailed analysis of the key developments in world cement supply & demand in past years, with most emphasis on the recent years of extensive cement industry development. Attention is focused on regional and global cement production, consumption, imports and exports.

Section 3: Europe

This Section includes full discussion and analysis of cement industry developments in recent years on a country-by-country basis. The Section is sub-divided into: The European Union (current 15 members) and other Europe

Europe includes a wide range of market types - from the mature industries of Western Europe to the rapidly changing cement sectors of firmer Eastern bloc countries and FSU States. Each cement market is unique and subject to different factors, with a wide range of prospects for future sector expansion. For each market in turn, this Section examines recent developments and presents detailed forecasts for cement supply and demand throughout the period to 2015.

A set of alternative forward scenarios is applied to each marker, detailing the expected level of cement supply and demand in each case.

Section 4: The Americas

The US cement market has been the world’s leading destination for cement & clinker exports in recent years, as cement consumption levels have far exceeded domestic capacity. Expansion of the latter in conjunction with a slowdown in demand growth has seen the import level fall in recent years - this Section examines what ahs happened and presents detailed forecasts on future cement supply & demand in the US market throughout the period to 2015. Forward development under alternative scenarios is also analysed. This is also undertaken for all of the principal sources of cement activity in North America and Central & South America

Section 5: Africa & the Middle East

The structure of the cement sector in the Middle East has undergone extensive change in recent years, as the commencement of new capacity has radically altered regional cement supply/ demand levels. At the same time, the massive disruption associated with conflicts in the region has included market volatility in annual cement production and consumption volumes, funding a highly dynamic market profile.

Similarly in Africa, the wide range of markets includes here – form the total clinker import dependency of some West African countries to the recently emerged large-scale exporter status of the previous large import Egypt-dictates a complex profile of cement supply/demand. Each principal source of cement demand or supply is examined in detail, with market forecasts for each through to 2015.

As with the other Sections, a set of alternative forward scenarios is developed for each market, detailing the expected level of cement supply/demand in each case.

Section 6: East Asia

The East Asia region plays a leading role in world cement supply/demand, with China alone currently responsible for approximately 37% of world production. The Chinese cement industry is developing rapidly, with important implication for other Asian and Western markets. Japanese cement activity has contracted in recent years, although the country still plays a key role in world trade. Other East Asian countries also play a significant part in the world cement profile, and detailed projection are presented and discussed for each in turn.

Section 7: Other Asia & Oceania

SE Asia saw dramatic cement demand contraction at the end of the 1990s, resulting in large volumes of cement and clinker available for export, and essentially redefining the pattern of world trade. Recent years have seen varying success in terms of market recovery, and in terms of exports availability. In SW Asia, India has emerged as a significant regional exporter and has massive potential for domestic demand expansion. This Section also includes the countries of Oceania.

For each country in turn, detailed forecasts of future cement supply and demand are presented throughout the study period, with the use of a set of alternative scenarios providing a Low/High range for future development.

South-West Asia

South-East Asia

Oceania

Section 8: World Cement Supply/Demand to 2015

This section examines the implications of the expected national forward development of national cement supply and demand for regional and global cement activity, throughout the period to 2015. This includes analysis and discussion on the implication of the alternative scenarios. These discussion help to place the individual country forecasts into a wider regional and global perspective.

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Global Cement Trade & Shipping - Future Outlook to 2015

The world cement trade and shipping sector is a complex combination of a wide variety of regular movements and sporadic short-term opportunistic shipments. A high volume of trade represents movements between companies under the umbrella of the same multinational cement group, whilst independent cement traders are still a major factor determining price levels and patterns of trade.
Construction booms and downturns can alter the regional cement trade profile dramatically – as witnessed in recent years in many of the world’s leading markets. Similarly, the rush to build new production capacity to meet future demand can make significant volumes of cement and/or clinker available for export, with the location of the plant and inland logistics determining the economic feasibility of overseas shipments.

A further layer of complexity is imposed by the variability of shipping costs – bulk carrier freight rates are determined by factors outside the cement sector, but they can radically alter the cost competitiveness of supplies from one country in a variety of world markets. The volatility of shipping costs – as witnessed over the past 4 years – therefore provides an extra layer of uncertainty for the future prospects of trade patterns and volumes.

Global Cement Trade & Shipping - Future Outlook to 2015 examines in detail the recent development of cement trade patterns and volumes, and provides an insight into the likely future outlook over the period to 2015. This is based not only on the cement production/consumption outlook for individual markets throughout the world, and therefore the implications for import requirements and export availability, but also on the likely future development of the specialist cement carrier fleet and the general bulk carrier sector. With extensive development ahead for the sizes of bulk carrier of most relevance to the cement sector, the outlook for cement shipping via this mode is highly uncertain, especially given the extent of market uncertainty over the future path for shipping freight rates.

For the specialist cement carrier sector, Global Cement Trade & Shipping - Future Outlook to 2015 includes a highly detailed set of analyses of the current fleet, and an examination of the likely forward development, based on the age profile and trends in new vessel ordering.

Global Cement Trade & Shipping - Future Outlook to 2015 provides invaluable independent analysis on the development of cement shipping and trade throughout the world in the period to 2015. It represents the most up-todate and comprehensive examination of the trade and shipping of cement ever published, and is essential reading for all parties with an interest in this sector.

Table of Contents :-
SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION & EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Includes an overview of the Report’s structure, as well as a summary of the methodology underlying the analyses.
This Section also includes a summary of the most significant points and conclusions drawn from the main body of the Report. They are presented in the order of the corresponding Sections for ease of reference.

SECTION 2 OVERVIEW : WORLD CEMENT TRADE 1970-2005
This Section provides detailed analysis of the key developments in world cement and clinker trade over the past 35 years, with most emphasis on the recent years of extensive trade volume and structure development. Attention is focussed on the main factors underlying trade developments, and the importance of seaborne shipments within the trade aggregate.

SECTION 3 EUROPE
Imports and exports by European countries dominate world trade, although a large part of the European trade total comprises inland movements between neighbouring countries. This Section includes full discussion and analysis of regional trade volumes and patterns, as well as examination of the trade profile in recent years for key import markets and export sources.
The Section is sub-divided into:
3.1 Overview
3.2 The European Union
3.3 Other Europe

SECTION 4 THE AMERICAS
The US cement market has been the world’s leading destination for cement & clinker exports in recent years, as cement consumption levels have far exceeded domestic capacity. Whilst there has been an import level fall in recent years, there is now a resurgence in import levels as demand continues to expand – this Section examines the scale and structure of US import demand, and examines the main sources of supply for the US market.
Latin America includes a number of traditional cement exporters to world markets. Export availability has varied of late, according to the scale of domestic cement consumption growth, but there continue to be a number of significant trade flows from Central & South American countries, mainly within the region but also to more distant markets. Import penetration among the leading cement markets is varied, but has changed in recent years. This Section includes in-depth appraisal of recent/current developments for imports & exports for all the main markets and suppliers in the region.
4.1 North America
4.2 Central & South America.

SECTION 5 AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST
Africa includes a number of import-dependent markets, both in terms of finished cement and clinker for grinding operations. Large-scale capacity expansion has seen import requirements decline and export availability emerge in recent years in key markets, with an associated radical change in the pattern of trade flows.
Similarly in the Middle East, capacity expansion has funded export growth for certain States, whilst ever-expanding domestic cement consumption and the aftermath of conflict in the region has prompted large-scale imports in others. The result is a complex evolving trade structure.
For each of these regions, the overall regional profile at the current time and over recent years is examined and discussed, before detailed individual country analyses are presented for the key import markets and exporting countries.
5.1 Africa
5.2 Middle East

SECTION 6 EAST ASIA
The traditional major roles played by Japan and South Korea in Asia and Pacific markets have been supplanted in recent years by the sheer scale of expansion of exports from China. Whilst these have been largely destined for trans-Pacific or intra-Asia movements, supplies from China and the region have also been shipped to a wide variety of markets world-wide.
At the same time, the region includes a number of significant cement and clinker import markets, supported by the involvement of the region’s large cement companies in import facilities overseas. Detailed examinations of the regional and national import/export profiles are presented and discussed all the major countries in the region.

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1  Introduction & Methodology

1.1  What does this report cover?

Are the combined human resources at Associated Cement Companies, Ltd. productive? There is no absolute answer to this question. This report considers the extent to which the company’s labor deployment indicators differ from global benchmarks. In this report we consider forecasts of differences between labor ratios and the resulting return on this human investment compared to global benchmarks; the estimation of such differences is commonly called a “gap analysis.” What is the ratio of short-term and long-term assets to employee? What are typical capital-labor ratios? How different are these ratios to companies serving the same link in the value chain? What are the average sales and net profits per employee compared to global benchmarks? These and over 50 other indicators of labor productivity and utilization are considered in this report. The report does so by going beyond traditional analyses by considering companies competing in the same or similar industrial classification at a global level.

The goal of this report is to save the reader time. It is designed to assist consultants, human resource managers, strategic planners, and corporate officers in gauging estimates of a company’s human resource indicators compared to firms competing or participating in the same economic sector, at the global level. This report is not about whether a particular company or industry has performed well or poorly in the past or will do so in the future. With the globalization of markets, greater foreign competition, and the reduction of entry barriers, it becomes all the more important to benchmark a company’s human resource indicators against other firms on a worldwide basis. Doing so, however, is not an obvious task. First, one needs to find firms competing in the same sector, but not necessarily competing directly with the company in local markets. These firms should not be perceived, therefore, to be direct competitors to the company in question, but simply those that have been classified by various sources (e.g. EDGAR or similar foreign filings), as competing to serve customers in the same link of the value chain, or broad industrial classification, as identified by SIC, NAICS or similar codes. Second, given the international nature of the task, one needs to control for exchange rate volatility. Finally, one needs use comparable financial standards.

1.2  Methodology

This report analyzes deviations between Associated Cement Companies, Ltd. and international labor-productivity and utilization benchmarks. In consultation with Aaron Freeman, President, IFAS LLC., who assisted me in the preparation of this report (including its methodology, locating comparable international information, and identifying globally comparable industry classification systems), the following chapters report a labor-ratio analysis of Associated Cement Companies, Ltd. vis-à-vis global benchmarks. In contrast to this report, most productivity and utilization studies focus on benchmarking against domestic ratios, often published by government agencies or commercial sources (e.g. Value Line, Dun and Bradstreet, and Standard & Poor’s). In their discussion of financial statement analysis and ratios, Skim and Siegel note that such comparisons (p. 43-44) :

 … allows you to answer the question, “How does a business fare in the industry?” You must compare the company’s ratios to… industry norms. [1]

In this report, I calculate an industry labor-productivity and/or labor-utilization norms by looking at firms at the global level, as opposed to a local level. In what follows, I will describe the seven-stage methodology used in performing this analysis. Each stage should be seen as a working assumption behind the numbers presented in later chapters.

Stage 1. Industry Classification. This stage begins by classifying the company into an industry. For this, I have relied on a combination of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS pronounced “Nakes”), a relatively new system for classifying business establishments, and the older Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system.  Adopted in 1997, NAICS codes are the new industry classification codes used by statistical agencies of the United States.  NAICS was developed jointly by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico to provide comparability in statistics about business activity across North America. After 60 years of service, the outdated SIC system was retired on October 1, 2000, leaving only the NAICS codes for official use. The NAICS classification system adds some 350 new industries and represents a revision to over 60% of the previous SIC industries. Despite its official retirement, the SIC system is still commonly used (and often reported in firm’s financial statements).

For most companies in the world, classification within either the new NAICS or older SIC systems is a rather straight forward exercise. For some, however, it can be problematic. This is true for several reasons. The first being that the SIC or NAICS classification systems are rather broad for many product and industry categories (a firm’s products or services may be only a minor aspect of the classification’s definition). The second is that some firms’ activities span multiple codes. Finally, it is possible that a firm is classified by one source using its SIC code, and by another using its NAICS code, and by a third using both. Furthermore, some sources do not report either code, but instead use qualitative statements of the firm’s activities. Nevertheless, if one wishes to pursue a labor productivity and utilization analysis, some classification needs to take place which selects a peer group. In making this classification, one can rely on a number of sources. In some countries, firms must “self” classify in official periodic reports (e.g. annular reports, 10Ks, etc.) to public authorities (such as the Securities and Exchange Commission). These reports are then open for public scrutiny (e.g. EDGAR filings). In other cases, commercial data vendors or private research firms provide SIC/NAICS codes for specific companies. These include:

Bloomberg - www.bloomberg.com
Datastream (Thomson Financial) - www.datastream.com
Dun & Bradstreet - www.dnb.com
Hoovers - www.hoovers.com
HarrisInfoSource - www.HarrisInfo.com
InfoUSA - www.infousa.com
Investext (Thomson Financial) - www.investext.com
Kompass International Neuenschwander SA. – www.kompass.com
Moody’s Investors Service - www.moodys.com
Primark (Thomson Financial) - www.primark.com
Profound (The Dialog Corporation – A Thomson Company) - www.profound.com
Reuters - www.reuters.com
Standard & Poor’s - www.standardandpoors.com
It is interesting to note that commercial vendors often report different qualitative descriptions and industrial classifications from one to another. These descriptions and classifications may also be different from those reported by the firm itself. Anyone hoping to perform a benchmarking study, therefore, has to make a judgment call across these various sources in order to determine a reasonable classification. In this report, I have decided a meta-analytic process, by combining various sources (including linking a classification’s keywords to qualitative descriptions of the firm’s product line). In cases of inconsistency, the most recent or globally comparable available is chosen. Again, the overall goal is to classify firms, which either produce similar products, offer similar services, or are in the same stage of the value chain for a particular industrial classification. In the case of this report, the SIC code selected is: 3241 which is defined as “Hydraulic Cement Manufacturing”; the corresponding NAISC code is 32731, which is defined as “Cement Manufacturing”. This classification should be seen as a working assumption. In order to obtain a more detailed discussion of this classification, the reader is referred to the web sites developed by the U.S. Census Bureau: http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naics.html. Basic definitions and descriptions are provided at: http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/drnaics.htm#q1.  A full correspondence table between SIC and NAICS codes, and detailed definitions are given at http://www.census.gov/epcd/www/naicstab.htm

Stage 2. Firm-level Data Collection. A global search is conducted across over 20,000 companies in over 40 major economies for those that (1) may be included in the classification from Stage 1, and (2) report financials (balance sheet and income statements), and (3) report an estimate of employment levels. It should be noted that the public-domain financials can be either historic or projections. It should also be noted that even historic figures can be modified in the future and often represent “estimates”.

Stage 3. Standardization. Once collected, public-domain financial figures of firms identified in Stage 2 are standardize into comparable categories (assets, liabilities, and income). From there, we eliminate all currency effects by standardizing within each category (creating ratios). In order to maintain comparability over time and across companies and countries, we use a common currency (the US dollar) and relate each measure to a “per employee basis”. Ratios are projected using raw financial statistics and, as ratios, are therefore comparable. 

Stage 4. Filtering. Not all the firms selected in Stage 2 or the ratios calculated in Stage 3 are used for the global benchmarks, as a number of companies are purposely dropped from the analysis, even though they may fall within the classification. This is justified by the “outlier” phenomenon that plagues such analysis. The problem lies in that any given company in the benchmarking pool may be facing some exceptional event or may be organized in an exceptional way so as to make its ratios vastly different from others in the same classification. By including such firms, the global benchmarks can be overly skewed. In many countries, firms are organized into holding groups. These groups nominally have very few employees (e.g. 4 to 25 employees), but have extremely large assets, liabilities, or revenues. As such, the inclusion or exclusion of firms having this form of management can affect the productivity and/or utilization ratios and benchmarks reported. Likewise, some firms have no net sales, no assets, no liabilities, or ratios. Others have ratios that appear implausible for a normal or viable company. In order to not allow these firms to affect the global benchmarks, I have attempted to choose only those firms with reasonable financials. Finally, in some countries, detailed financials are not available or are not comparable to either the company in question or the global norm (e.g. various forms of depreciation per employee). In this case, only those which exist and are comparable are reported. The details, therefore, that comprise a given productivity or utilization ratio or set of ratios may not be reported. This may lead to the addition of several ratios, not summing to the whole.

Stage 5. Calculation of Global Norms. Once the filtering process has eliminated outliers, a final list of companies included in the global labor ratio averages is compiled. In this report, the following companies are included (country of headquarters in parentheses, exchanges, and ticker symbols); again this list should be seen as a working assumption:

 

Company (Country)	Exchange	Ticker
	Adelaide Brighton Limited (Australia)	SYD	ABC
	Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited (Hong Kong)	HKG
	Associated Cement Companies, Limited (India)	OTH	ACC
	Bacnotan Consolidated Industries Incorporated (Philippines)	PHL	BCI
	Buzzi Unicem (Italy)	ISE	BZU
	Cement Industries of Malaysia Berhad (Malaysia)	KUL	CIOM
	Cementia Holding AG (Switzerland)	GVA, ZHR	CEMP
	Cementir-Cementerie del Tirreno S.p.A. (Italy)	ISE	CEM
	Cemento Polpaico S.A. (Chile)	SAN	POLPAICO
	Cementos Bio-Bio S.A. (Chile)	SAN	CEMENTOS
	Century Textiles and Industries Limited (India)	OTH
	Cherat Cement Company Limited (Pakistan)	KAR
	Ciments Francais (France)	PAR	CMA
	CIMPOR - Cimentos De Portugal, E.P. (Portugal)	LIS	CPR
	Denki Kagaku Kogyo Kabushiki Kaisha (Japan)	OSA, TYO, OTH	4061
	Dyckerhoff AG (Germany)	DUS, FRA, OTH	DYK3
	Empresas Melon SA (Chile)	SAN	MELON
	Fecto Cement Limited (Pakistan)	KAR
	Gujarat Ambuhja Cements (India)	BOM
	Hanil Cement Company Limited (South Korea)	SEO	3300
	HeidelbergCement AG (Germany)	DUS, FRA, OTH	HEI
	Heracles General Cement Company S.A. (Greece)	ATH	HRAK
	Holcim S.A. (Switzerland)	GVA, OTH, ZHR	HOL
	Huaxin Cement Company Limited (China)	SHG	CH900933
	Hyundai Cement Company (South Korea)	SEO	6390
	Italcementi Spa (Italy)	FRA, OTH	IT
	Lafarge S.A. (France)	DUS, FRA, LON, PAR, OTH	LG
	Lucky Cement Limited (Pakistan)	KAR
	Madras Cement (India)	BOM
	Malayan Cement Berhad (Malaysia)	KUL	MYCS
	Pretoria Portland Cement Company Limited (South Africa)	JNB	PPC
	Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestao SGPS, S.A. (Portugal)	OTH, LIS	SEM
	Siam City Cement Public Company Limited (Thailand)	BAN	SCCC
	St. Lawrence Cement Incorporated (Canada)	MON, TOR	ST A
	Sumitomo Osaka Cement Company Limited (Japan)	OSA, TYO, OTH	5232
	Sungshin Cement Manufacturing Company Limited (South Korea)	SEO	4980
	Taiheiyo Cement Corporation (Japan)	OSA, TYO, OTH	5233
	Tasek Corporation Berhad (Malaysia)	KUL	TKCS
	Titan Cement Company S.A. (Greece)	ATH	TITK
	Tong Yang Major Corporation (South Korea)	SEO	1520
	Uniland Cementera SA (Spain)	MAD	UND
	Union Cement Corporation (Philippines)	PHL	HCC

 Based on this list, the ratios discussed in Stage 3 are calculated for every firm, and then averaged to create global labor benchmarks. No weighting is used in this average.Stage 6. Projection of Deviations.   The goal of this report is not to present the raw ratios or averages, but to present the difference between the company’s estimated labor ratio and the projected global average for that same labor ratio. Furthermore, it can be insightful to know the location of each ratio within the distribution of the companies used in Stage 5. These deviations, in fact, can be seen as projections or likely scenarios for the future. This is often true for two reasons. First, while a company’s financials and employment levels change from year to year, its ratios are often stable. This is especially true for the global benchmarks which represent averages across many companies. From a purely Bayesian sense, the difference between the company’s recent ratios and the benchmarks are a reasonable prior for future deviations. This is true, even if the entire industry is hit by an external or exogenous shock, such as an oil crisis or economic slowdown. In other words, I assume that the structure of the variance in the industry’s labor productivity and utilization remains stable. Second, many of the data are based on preliminary reports that might be changed in future filings. As forecasts, therefore, the numbers derived from these are also forecasts of past and future performance (with associated uncertainties). The calculation of the difference between a company’s ratios and the global benchmarks is meant to yield roughly approximate forecasts, or “useful measures”. Again, the forecasts are based on the assumption of relative stability. This assumption has proven extremely robust in previous applications of this methodology (i.e. today’s weather is a good predictor of tomorrow’s weather, but not the weather three years from now).

Stage 7. Projection of Ranks and Percentiles. Based on the calculation of deviations, relative ranks and percentiles are calculated across the firms used in the global benchmarks. The percentile estimates the percent of firms within the same sector of the global economy that have values of the labor ratio lower than the firm in question. It is important to note that a percentile being high (or low) does not mean good (or bad) past, present or future performance. The reader must draw this conclusion on his own. The estimates provided were created to provide managerial insight, and not a recommendation with respect to any valuation of the company, its employees or its management.

I graphically report, for each part of the financial statement, the larger structural differences between the firm and the global benchmarks, and provide a summary table of ranks and percentiles. A deviation from the global norm need not be a bad sign. Rather, it is simply a substantial difference that might merit further attention or perhaps signal a firm’s relative strength or weakness for the coming fiscal year.

1.3  Limitations

Shim and Siegal (p. 60) stress that “while ratio analysis is an effective tool for assessing a company’s condition, its limitations must be recognized.” In particular, they find that (p. 59) “no single ratio or group of ratios is adequate for assessing all aspects of a company’s financial condition.” The authors note the following limitations associated with ratio analyses which apply to the global benchmarking and labor ratios presented here (p.60):

·         Accounting standards or policies may limit useful comparisons across companies

·         Management accounting practices across companies and countries may not be performed in the same style

·         Ratios are static and do not reveal future trends

·         Ratios do not indicate the quality of the components used to calculate the ratios (i.e. ratios have ambiguous interpretations)

·         Reported ratios may not reflect real values

·         Companies may be highly diversified, limiting the comparability of their ratios to others

·         Industry averages or norms are approximate; finer industry definitions may be required for certain interpretations or comparisons

·         Financial statements and resulting ratios often mean different things to different people depending on their points of view or motivations.

Again, all figures reported here are estimates, so due caution is required. The above caveats, and the fact that statements made in this report are forward-looking, requires that this point be emphasized. A number of intervening factors can have material effect on the ratios and variances forecasted. These include changes in a company’s management style, exchange rate volatility, changes in accounting standards, the lack of oversight or comparability in accounting standards, changes in economic conditions, changes in competition, changes in the global economy, changes in source data quality, and similar factors. Please refer to Chapter 5 for further caveats.

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Cement Industry Has Continued Its Growth Trajectory Over The Past Seven Years

The Cement industry has continued its growth trajectory over the past seven years. Domestic cement demand growth has surpassed the economic growth rate of the country for the past couple of years. Over the past five years (FY03-07), cement demand has grown at a CAGR of 8.37% higher than the CAGR of supply at 4.84%. Demand for cement in the country is expected to continue its buoyant ride on the back of robust economic growth and infrastructure development in the country.

The key drivers for cement demand are real estate sector, infrastructure projects and industrial expansion projects. Among these, real estate sector is the key driver and accounted for almost 55% of cement demand

in FY 07.

During the period FY 03 – 07, capacity additions in the country (30.6 mn tonnes) were at a slower rate compared to demand growth leading to higher average capacity utilization rates from 81.3% in FY 03 to

93.8% in FY 07. This exerted pressure on average prices which have increased from Rs. 156 per bag in FY 03 to Rs. 216 per bag in FY 07. In December 2007, prices stood at Rs. 245 - Rs. 250 per bag.

Low capacity addition coupled with higher utilization rate also led to increase in proportion of blended cements in product mix. Blended cement accounted for 68% of product mix in FY 07 as compared to 49% in FY 03.

Cement is a bulky commodity and cannot be easily transported over long distances making it a regional market place, with the nation being divided into five regions. Each region is characterised by its own

demand-supply dynamics. The Southern region dominated the cement consumption at 44.5 mn tonnes in FY 07, accounting for about 30% of total domestic cement consumption. During FY 03-07, Southern region

has witnessed highest CAGR of cement demand at 10.4% followed by Northern and Eastern regions at 8.9% and 9%, respectively.

Over the past five years, cost of cement production has grown at a CAGR of 8.4%. The producers have been able to pass on the hike in cost to consumers on the back of increased demand. Average realizations

have increased from Rs. 1,880 per tonne in FY 03 to Rs. 3,133 per tonne in FY 07, at a CAGR of 13.6%, which has resulted in higher profit margins of the industry.

To reduce the cost of production, the industry is increasing its focus on captive power generation. Proportion of cement production through captive power route has increased over the years. Also, cement movement by

rail has increased over the years.

Tables content

Tables No. Particulars Tables No. Particulars

A-13 Projected capacity additions

A-14 Import Cost structure

A-15 Cement statistics CY 06 - Countrywise

A-16 Cost comparison of grid and captive power

A-17 Captive Power Plants announced —

Regionwise

A-18 Alternate fuel consumption

A-19 Dispatch mode for cement companies (FY 07)

A-20 Industry aggregates

A-21 Projected Capacity assuming delays

A-22 Projected Demand-Supply situation

A-23 Projected Demand-Supply situation -

Regionwise

A-1 Industry structure as on 31.03.2007

A-2 Status of top 10 players’ (capacity wise)

A-3 Cement demand statistics

A-4 Companywise exports in FY 07

A-5 North - Inter-regional Cement Movement

A-6 South - Inter-regional Cement Movement

A-7 West - Inter-regional Cement Movement

A-8 East - Inter-regional Cement Movement

A-9 Central - Inter-regional Cement Movement

A-10 Inter-regional cement movement in FY 07

A-11 Demand Drivers - Regionwise

A-12 Regionwise capacity additions

Section B

Tables

1 Cement Industry Basics

1.1 Types of Cement

1.2 Cement Manufacturing Process

1.3 Industry Characteristics

2 Key Statistics – Financial

Topic No. Topics

B-1 Contrywise Per Capita Consumption

B-2 Duty Structure

B-3 Net Sales

B-4 Operating Profit

B-5 Net Profit

B-6 Operating Profit Margin

B-7 APAT Margin

B-8 Interest Coverage Ratio

B-9 Regionwise/Statewise capacity & production

B-10 Regionwise/Statewise cement consumption

B-11 Statewise Surplus/Deficit scenario

B-12 Companywise Capacity

B-13 Companywise Production

B-14 Companywise Dispatch

B-15 (i) Total Export scenario (Cement)

B-15 (ii) Total Export scenario (Clinker)

B-16 Companywise Exports

B-17 Regionwise Product Mix

B-18 Companywise Product Mix

B-19 Overall Product Mix

B-20 Cement Dispatch Mode

B-21 Companywise Dispatch Mix

B-22 Average Cement prices

B-23 Duty Structure

B-24 Companywise Dispatch

B-25 Capacity Expansion Projects by major

companies

B-26 Limestone Cost

B-27 Gypsum Cost

B-28 Fly Ash Cost

B-29 Limestone consumption

B-30 Coal consumption

B-31 Power consumption

B-32 Power consumption pattern

B-33 Cost per tonne of cement produced

B-34 Industry Developments post H1

Figures

Figure No. Particulars Figure No. Particulars

A-1 Per capita consumption

A-2 Major cement producing states

A-3 Major cement consuming states

A-4 Capacity Utilization

A-5 Trend of capacity addition

A-6 Regional statistics

A-7 Regional scenario

A-8 North - Overall scenario

A-9 North - Statewise scenario

A-10 North - Position of top players in the region

A-11 Price trend in Delhi

A-12 South - Overall scenario

A-13 South - Statewise scenario

A-14 South - Position of top players in the region

A-15 Price trend in Chennai

A-16 West - Overall scenario

A-17 West - Statewise scenario

A-18 West - Position of top players in the region

A-19 Price trend in Mumbai

A-20 East - Overall scenario

A-21 East - Statewise scenario

A-22 East - Position of top players in the region

A-23 Price trend in Kolkata

A-24 Central - Overall scenario

A-25 Central - Statewise scenario

A-26 Central - Position of top players in the region

A-27 Capacity utilisation Rate

A-28 Sectorwise Cement Demand

A-29 Growing middle class

A-30 Construction component for different sectors

th A-31 Infrastructure outlay - 11 five year plan

A-32 Bifurcation of investments planned in

industrial sector

A-33 Product mix

A-34 Regional product mix FY 07

A-35 Overall & regionwise product mix - FY 08

A-36 Average yearly retail cement price per bag

A-37 Cost per unit - Industry Average

A-38 Coal consumption & imports

A-39 Change in industrywide dispatch mix

A-40 Trend of Cement dispatch mix

A-41 Regionwise distribution of proven reserves of

limestone in the country

A-42 Market share of major players FY 07

A-43 Regional Scenario - Market share of top

five players

A-44 Industry Average

A-45 Growth rate: GDP and Cement Domestic

Consumption

Section A

6 Cement Prices

7 Cost Analysis

7.1 Power & Fuel Cost

7.2 Freight and Forwarding Cost

7.3 Raw Material Cost

8 Market Competition & Consolidation

8.1 Market share of major players

8.2 Industry Aggregates

9 Outlook

9.1 Projected Demand-Supply scenario

9.2 Projected Demand-Supply situation -

Regionwise

9.3 Industry concerns

10 SWOT Analysis

11 Company Profiles

11.1 Associated Cement Company Ltd. (ACC)

11.2 Ambuja Cements Ltd.

11.3 Grasim Industries Ltd.

11.4 UltraTech Cement Ltd.

11.5 The India Cements Ltd.

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SECTION 1 - THE INDIAN CEMENT INDUSTRY

CHAPTER 1: Introduction

Share in Government Revenues - Duties on Cement, Phase of Decontrol, Status in the Global Scenario - Global Capacity, Per Capita Consumption in India, Demand Growth versus Increase in production.

CHAPTER 2: Product and Technology

Historical Evaluation, Types of Cement - Consumption Composition in India, The Manufacturing Process - The Wet Process, The Semi-Dry Process, The Dry Process, Stages in Manufacturing, Issue of Pollution Control, Raw Materials - Limestone, Gypsum, Granulated Blast Furnace Slag (GBFS), Maintenance and Stores Requiements, Contemporary Areas of Technological Advancement.

CHAPTER 3: Market Structure

Industry Structure - Major Players, Role of Public Sector, The Mini Cement Industry, Process Technology, Scale of Operations, Region-wise Distribution of Supply, Region-wise Consumption, End User.

CHAPTER 4: Infrastructure

Background, Coal - Coal Usage, Coal Distribution Merchant, Problems with Indian Coal, Corrective Measures for Improving Coal Quality, Constraints in Domestic Availability, Alternative Fuels, Power - Power Availability, Dependence on Own Generation, Transportation - Roads Versus Rail Network, Quest for Alternatives.

CHAPTER 5: Demand Supply Scenario

Cement Demand - Sources of Demand, Cement Demand in India, Demand Supply Forecast - Historical Trend, Assumptions, Forecast, Potential Drivers of Demand, Threat of Cement Import.

CHAPTER 6: Electronics

Background - Capital Costs, Financial Performance - 9M FY2004 Performance, Cost Structure, Margins & Returns till FY2003.

CHAPTER 7: Conclusion 

Key Success Factors - Internal Factors, External Factors, Locational Issues, Emerging Trends - Shift in Minimum Economic Size, Access to Capital, Process of Consolidation and Growth through the Acquisition Route, Outlook.

Annexure

Phases of Decontrol, Stages in Manufacturing, The Indian Coal Industry,  Sales Quantity, Installed Capacity, Cement Production, Sales Realisation, Operating Profit,  Operating Income, Energy Cost, Freight Cost,  Profit After Tax, Power Consumption,  Return on Net Worth, Return on Capital Employed, Operating Margin, Net Margin, Summary, Global Trends, Profile of Leading International Cement Companies.

SECTION 2 - CORPORATE DIGEST

How to Use the Corporate Digest, Companies - The Associated Cement Companies Limited, Birla Corporation Limited, Dalmia Cement (Bharat) Limited, Grasim Industries Limited, Gujarat Ambuja Cements Limited, India Cements Limited, Kesoram Industries Limited, Larsen and Toubro Limited, Madras Cements Limited, Narmada Cement Company Limited, Prism Cement Limied, Shree Cement Limited.

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Global demand to rise 6% annually through 2012
World demand for cement and concrete additives will rise 6.0 percent per year to $16.2 billion in 2012. Advances will be driven by increased penetration of chemical and fiber additives in concrete construction, in both emerging markets in Asia and Eastern Europe as well as the more mature cement industry in North America. Additionally, the use of mineral additives as cement supplements will be driven by environmental concerns, in addition to an increased supply of cementious byproducts from growing coal consumption and iron production around the world.

Chemical, fiber additives to be fastest growing
Demand for chemical and fiber additives will grow at the fastest pace as acceptance of these products and the benefits they provide continues to rise. In particular, strong growth is expected for highperformance superplasticizing water reducers, which facilitate concrete pouring and enhance the strength of concrete structures. Sales of fiber additives will expand most rapidly in emerging construction markets, particularly in the Asia/Pacific region. Mineral additives will also see solid gains in demand, particularly in high-growth, high-volume cement markets such as China and India. The use of mineral additives allows cement producers to take advantage of low-cost fly ash and blast furnace slag byproducts, reducing waste and limiting the CO2 emissions associated with cement production.

Asia/Pacific region offers best growth opportunities
Among the three major world regions, strongest advances are forecast for cement and concrete additives in the Asia/Pacific region, which is home to rapidly growing cement markets such as China and India. Gains in the region will also benefit from a rebound in construction activity in South Korea and Taiwan. Although the cement industry in North America is also quite mature, aboveaverage gains in additive demand will be driven by an increased focus on production of more durable concrete and utilization of mineral waste products. Demand for additives in Western Europe will post subpar gains through 2012. The use of both chemical and mineral additives is already widespread in the region, restricting prospects for growth. Additive demand in Eastern Europe, led by Russia, will outpace the global average, fueled by increased utilization of abundant slag and fly ash waste materials and incorporation of EU trends of additive use in concrete construction. Growth in Latin America and the Africa/Mideast region will be driven by increasing industrialization, infrastructure development and modernization of construction practices.

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The World Consumption Report on Miscellaneous Concrete Products. Consumption/Products/Services by country. 6/10-Digit NAICS Product Codes.  3 Time series: From 1997 and Forecasts to 2014 & 2014-2028.  Relative Consumption, Local Consumption, Per-Capita Consumption, Marketing Costs & Margins, Product Launch Data, Buyers, End Users & Customer Profile, Consumer Demographics.  Historic Balance Sheets, Forecast Financial Data, Industry Profile, National Data.  Printed manual, DVD, web & databases. Merge text, tables & databases for own reports, spreadsheet calculations & modeling. 

Executive Summary :

This World Consumption Report on Miscellaneous Concrete Products provides data on the net consumption of Products and Services in each of the countries listed. The Products and Services covered Other concrete product manufacturing are classified by the 5-Digit United States Commerce Department Major Product Codes and each Product and Services is then further defined and analyzed by each 6 to 10-Digit United States Commerce Department Product Codes. This report consists of a printed manual plus a DVD containing the entire report web and databases. Readers can access and reproduce the information for inclusion into their own documents or reports.  The tables & databases are in Access & Excel formats on the DVD to enable readers to produce their own spreadsheet calculations and modeling. This database is updated monthly. After-Sales and update services available from The Data Institute.

Table of Contents :

The World Consumption Report on Miscellaneous Concrete Products.

Net consumption of Miscellaneous Concrete Products Products & Services in each country.

Products/Services classified by 5-Digit US Commerce Department Code and then defined by each 6 to 10-Digit Product Codes.

The World Consumption Report on Miscellaneous Concrete Products covers: TIME SERIES - Historic: 1997-2009 / Current time series: 2009-2014 / Long Term Projection: 2014-2028. Consumption given at industry / distribution channel / service or product line level.

1. RELATIVE CONSUMPTION - in US$ (Purchasing Parity Index applied) by Country by each Product (4-10 Digit Product Code) by Year: 1997-2009, Medium Term Forecast 2009-2014, Long Term Forecast 2014-2028.

2. LOCAL CONSUMPTION - in Local Currency (Relative Inflation Index applied)

3. PER-CAPITA CONSUMPTION - in US$ by Country by Products by Year: 1997-2009, Forecast 2009-2014, Forecast 2014-2028.

4. PRODUCT MARKETING COSTS & MARGINS

5. PRODUCT LAUNCH DATA - given as a percentage of Revenues - by Country by Year - Forecast 2009-2014, Forecast 2014-2028.

6. IMMEDIATE BUYERS & END USERS / CUSTOMER BASE PROFILE

7. IMMEDIATE BUYERS & END USERS / CONSUMER DEMOGRAPHICS - by Country by Year - Forecast 2009-2014, Forecast 2014-2028.

8. HISTORIC INDUSTRY BALANCE SHEET DATA

9. FORECAST INDUSTRY FINANCIAL DATA  - by Country by Year - Forecast 2009 - 2014, Forecast 2014-2028.

10. INDUSTRY PROFILE - by Country by Year.

11. NATIONAL DATA - by Country by Year.

Printed manual plus a DVD containing the entire web and databases. Readers can access & reproduce the information for their own documents or reports. 

Tables & databases as Access & Excel formats on the DVD to enable readers to produce their own spreadsheet calculations and modeling. 

36 Products covered, over 200 Countries covered,  2165 pages,  9858 spreadsheets,  9686 database tables,  568 diagrams & maps. Contents change for each edition.

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