Forecast Insight: Depression - Generic induced brand erosion leads to market decline
The depression market was valued at around $11.04 billion in 2007 across the seven major markets. Following marginal growth to 2011 ($12.01 billion), the market is forecast to decline in value through to 2017 ($9.81 billion) when brand erosion due to generic incursion affecting all major drug classes used to treat depression finally outweighs the success of reformulations and follow-on products.
Scope of this research
This report gives a strategic analysis of the likely impact that recent events will have on the future depression market
Includes depression-specific sales forecasts for the key brands, generics, and pipeline agents in the seven major markets to 2017
Provides a global depression-market snapshot, and analysis of growth trends in key markets outside of the seven major pharmaceutical markets
Conclusions are supported by key opinion leader comment
Research and analysis highlights
Datamonitor has upgraded its depression-specific Abilify and Seroquel forecasts following positive clinical trial data in depression for both atypical antipsychotics, and the observation that regulatory approval of Abilify as an adjunct to antidepressants in depression resulted in an increase in the brand’s quarterly sales growth rate.
Servier and Novartis’s Valdoxan has emerged as the most promising pipeline depression drug following failure of several late-stage candidates. Prescribing for depression patients suffering from comorbid sleep disorders will drive sales over the forecast period.
Datamonitor forecasts moderate uptake of saredutant in refractory depression patients as an add-on therapy. While the drug failed to show efficacy as a monotherapy in clinical trials published over the last year, Sanofi-aventis is continuing to develop saredutant with two add-on therapy trials ongoing.
Key reasons to purchase this research
Quantify the current size of the global major depressive disorder market
Assess the impact of recent and anticipated events (patent expiries, new product launches, regulatory approval) on depression-specific brand sales
Understand the country-specific impact of key events in the major depressive disorder market during the forecast period 2008 to 2017
Table of Contents:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Strategic scoping and focus
Datamonitor insight into the depression market
Related reports
MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW
Market definition for this report
Countries and regions included in this report
Seven major market assessment
Seven major market dynamics
5EU (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK) market dynamics
Japanese market dynamics
Comparison with previous forecast
Global sales and rest of the world snapshot
Rest of the world is a multi-billion dollar market
Rest of the world depression sales have grown rapidly over the last 4 years
Dynamics in the rest of the world
BRAND DYNAMICS
Overview of competitive landscape
Leading brands across the seven major pharmaceutical markets
Key pipeline drugs
Updated key marketed brand dynamics
Zoloft (sertraline, Pfizer)
Abilify (aripiprazole, Bristol-Myers Squibb and Otsuka Pharmaceutical)
Pristiq (desvenlafaxine succinate extended release, Wyeth)
Wellbutrin XL (bupropion extended-release; GlaxoSmithKline)
Effexor XR
Updated key pipeline drug assumptions
Valdoxan (agomelatine, Servier and Novartis)
Seroquel XR (quetiapine extended-release, AstraZeneca)
Vilazodone (Clinical Data Inc)
Saredutant (Sanofi-Aventis)
DDS-04A (once-daily formulation of trazodone, Labopharm)
Lu AA21004 (Lundbeck)
Corlux (mifepristone, C-1073, Corcept)
Key project discontinuations
Amibegron – project terminated
Gepirone ER – project terminated
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal papers
Websites
Datamonitor reports
APPENDIX A – MARKET ASSUMPTIONS
New product launches
Patent expiry dates
Data definitions, limitations and assumptions
Standard units
Japanese market data
Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends
Forecast methodology
APPENDIX B
Contributing experts
Report methodology
TABLES
Table: Depression-specific sales forecasts in the seven major markets ($m), 2007–2017
Table: Depression-specific sales revenue for the top eight ranked brands across the seven major markets, 2004–2017
Table: Key products in late-stage of development for depression , 2008
Table: Key products in Phase II development for depression , 2008
Table: Abilify (aripiprazole) recommended doses across indications, 2008
Table: Datamonitor’s estimated launch dates for key depression products in the seven major markets, 2008–2017
Table: Patent expiry dates for the key depression brands in the seven major markets, 2007–2018
FIGURES
Figure: Depression-specific sales ($ billion) by country, 2004–2017
Figure: Regional share of the total major depressive disorder market, 2007–2017
Figure: Depression-specific sales revenue ($ billion) in US, 2004–2017
Figure: 5EU major depressive disorder market value and forecast ($ billion), 2004–2017
Figure: Japanese major depressive disorder market value and forecast ($ billion), 2004–2017
Figure: Percentage of major drug class sales revenue in major depressive disorder, 2004–2017
Figure: Atypical antipsychotic sales revenue from major depressive disorder across the seven major markets, 2004–2017
Figure: Comparison of depression-specific forecasts in the seven major markets, 2006–2017
Figure: The global major depressive disorder market split by region, 2007
Figure: The global major depressive disorder market growth trends ($ billion) split by region, 2004–08
Figure: Regional major depressive disorder market value ($m), 2004–07
Figure: Latin American major depressive disorder market ($m), 2004–07
Figure: Top eight depression-specific brands on value ($m) across the seven major markets, 2004–2017
Figure: Generic incursion on Zoloft (sertraline) depression-specific sales in the US ($m)
Figure: Switch in sertraline IMS Standard Units sold in the US, Q1 2006 to Q2 2008
Figure: Zoloft (sertraline) branded depression-specific sales revenue ($m) in the US, 2005–07
Figure: Depression-specific Zoloft (sertraline) historical and forecast sales revenue ($m), seven major markets, 2004–2017
Figure: Depression-specific Abilify (aripiprazole) sales revenue across the seven major markets, 2006–2017
Figure: Depression-specific sales of key atypical antipsychotic brands across the seven major markets, 2006–07
Figure: Change in quarterly total brand IMS Standard Units (SU) sold for Abilify (aripiprazole) in the US, Q3 2006 to Q2 2008
Figure: Depression-specific Pristiq forecast sales revenue ($m), seven major markets, 2008–2017
Figure: Depression-specific Wellbutrin XL (bupropion extended-release) historical and forecast sales revenue ($m), seven major markets, 2004–2017
Figure: Depression-specific Cymbalta historical and forecast sales revenue ($m), seven major markets, 2004–2017
Figure: Depression-specific Effexor XR historical and forecast sales revenue ($m), seven major markets, 2004–2017
Figure: Depression-specific Valdoxan (agomelatine) forecast sales revenue ($m), seven major markets, 2008–2017
Figure: Depression-specific Seroquel IR and Seroquel XR historical (2004–07) and forecast (2008–2017) sales revenue ($m), seven major markets
Figure: Depression-specific Seroquel franchise (IR + XR) historical (2004–07) and forecast (2008–2017) sales revenue ($m), seven major markets
Figure: Off-label depression-specific sales of Seroquel (quetiapine) IR+XR, 2004–07
Figure: Percentage of total Seroquel brand sales attributed to depression, 2005–07
Figure: Quarterly US total brand sales ($m) for Seroquel IR and Seroquel XR, Q3 2007 to Q2 2008
Figure: Depression-specific vilazodone forecast sales revenue ($m), seven major markets, 2010–2017
Figure: Depression-specific saredutant forecast sales revenue ($m), seven major markets, 2008–2017
Figure: Depression-specific DDS-04A (trazodone once daily) forecast sales revenue ($m), seven major markets, 2008–2017
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